Category Five Hurricane Melissa is forecast to make landfall early Tuesday (October 28), in eastern Westmoreland or western St. Elizabeth, before exiting the island along the St. Ann coastline by evening.

Principal Director of the Meteorological Service of Jamaica (Met Service), Evan Thompson, provided the update from the National Emergency Operations Centre (NEOC) at the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM) in Kingston on Monday (October 27).

“[Hurricane Melissa] is moving closer to us; there is just a small window of opportunity where it could continue to shift. The track could continue to be shifted towards the west and then it could be moving over the waters to the west of Jamaica. Of course, all of us are hoping for that and praying for that but at the same time, we have to be practical,” he stated.

Mr. Thompson noted that there is a possibility that the hurricane could slightly weaken to Category Four prior to landfall.

“It may exit the island, possibly as a Category Three. It might still be a weak Category Four at that time and then it will continue on its way closer to the eastern part of Cuba. But still, let us prepare ourselves for a Category Five hurricane,” he said.

Mr. Thompson indicated that hurricane-force winds are anticipated across sections of Westmoreland and St. Elizabeth, with tropical storm-force winds likely to affect most, if not all, of the island.

Meanwhile, the Principal Director said rainfall totals could reach up to 30 inches across much of the country.

He further informed that the highest storm surges – up to 14 feet – are likely in Black River, St. Elizabeth.

“As you move along the coast, of course, there are some areas that might not be impacted significantly by storm surge, especially if you don’t have a gradual slope onto the land but you might have a cliff face. But if you are moving into the Portland Cottage area, Salt River area, because you are in that little inlet, you also have a strong likelihood of experiencing some storm surge.

“It would not be as high as experienced over in the west but you should also look out for some surge occurring in those areas of Clarendon and going into the Old Harbour Bay area [of St. Catherine]; that’s a possibility. Also, as you move across the border from St. Catherine into Kingston and St. Andrew, along the coast could also experience some amount of storm surge,” Mr. Thompson said.